The Strait of Hormuz and the Geography of Energy Security
A narrow waterway carries a fifth of the world’s oil. Why the threat to close it has been made so often — and carried out so rarely.

Independent analysis of the Middle East, geopolitics and international affairs.
MENA Analysis publishes long-form analysis and commentary on the politics, history and political economy of the Middle East and North Africa — from the Maghreb to the Gulf, and from the Ottoman past to the geopolitics of today. The aim is simple: careful argument, clear sources and writing that explains rather than shouts.
A narrow waterway carries a fifth of the world’s oil. Why the threat to close it has been made so often — and carried out so rarely.
For half a century, the idea of the ‘rentier state’ has explained why oil wealth sustains authoritarian rule. How well does it still hold as Gulf governments tax, diversify and reinvent the social contract?
A 1936 convention still governs one of the world’s most strategic waterways. How Montreux turns geography into diplomatic leverage for Ankara.
3 min read
Turkey, Syria and Iraq share two great rivers but no comprehensive agreement on how to divide them. Why hydro-politics in Mesopotamia is about power as much as scarcity.
4 min read
In ten days, a war over a canal ended Britain and France’s claims to dominate the Middle East — and revealed who really held power in the post-war order.
4 min read
What this publication tries to do, and how: structure before headlines, history before prediction, and local actors before grand narratives.
2 min read